Houthi attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea will likely resume in 2025 because of a low likelihood of a successful conclusion to the Gaza ceasefire deal, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence.
The rebel group said on Sunday that it would halt attacks on non-Israeli owned or flagged vessels while keeping the door open to renewing its Red Sea campaign if the US and UK launched further airstrikes.
It said that the halt did not apply to Israeli-linked ships, which would only kick in when all phases of the ceasefire agreement were in place.
Analysis by S&P suggested that the “ceasefire is very likely to collapse beyond its initial phase” as it assessed that the Israeli Defense Force (IDF) would be unlikely to withdraw from Gaza entirely and restrictions to access to the territory would not be fully lifted.
“The Houthi are likely to cite this as justification for continued missile and attack uncrewed aerial vehicle (UAV) attacks against Israel,” according to the note.
That in turn would likely lead to US-led airstrikes on the Houthis “triggering renewed Houthi targeting of US and UK-affiliated vessels”, said S&P.
It said that posed a danger to all shipping in the Red Sea as its data suggests that two-thirds of ships targeted by the Houthis had no clear affiliation to the US, UK or Israel.
Shipping companies and insurers have responded with caution to the Houthi announcement with no sign of an immediate return to the Red Sea.
Some war risk insurance rates fell on the announcement but other providers have held firm, warning of the continued high risk for ships transiting the Red Sea.
Insurance rates are already significantly different for different operators depending on the perception of risk, with rates for Chinese ships much lower, said brokers.
Michael Ingham, the executive director, marine at insurance broker Gallagher, said: “Some of the biggest operators have said they won’t be going through there for a while. I don’t think underwriters will take much of a different view from that.”
Analysts say that any return to the Red Sea is likely to happen over weeks based on whether Houthis fulfil their pledge.
They said shipping companies have also made strong returns owing to extra tonne miles from rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope and will not hasten to return.
Ardmore Shipping, Wallenius Wilhelmsen, MSC and Hoegh Autoliners are among the companies who have said they will not return immediately to transiting through the Suez Canal.
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