A Gaza ceasefire deal underpinning hopes for a reopening of the Red Sea looked on the verge of collapse on Tuesday, as Israel and Hamas accused each other of violating its terms.
The Palestinian Hamas group said on Monday that it would delay the scheduled release of three Israeli hostages in response to Israel allegedly blocking humanitarian aid and other claimed breaches of the deal.
A breakdown of the Gaza agreement is expected to lead the Houthis to resume their campaign against Western shipping in the Red Sea, which the Yemeni group said it began in October 2023 in support of Hamas.
This would vindicate concerns by shipowners who have been reluctant to resume Red Sea sailings since the Israel-Hamas ceasefire took effect on 19 January, considering the truce as too fragile.
Voyages through the Suez Canal and the Red Sea have not picked up after the ceasefire, according to aggregate transit data compiled by Clarksons.
About half of the pre-crisis traffic continues to be rerouted around Africa, supporting tonne-miles and shipping companies’ earnings.
As part of the truce, Israel and Hamas had agreed on 19 January on a gradual exchange of captives over several phases.
Prospects of the ceasefire surviving look particularly bleak, considering that US President Donald Trump urged Israel late on Monday to dump the deal if all Israel hostages are not returned in one stroke on Saturday.
“As far as I’m concerned, if all of the hostages aren’t returned by Saturday at 12 o’clock … I would say ‘cancel it’ and all bets are off and let hell break out…” Trump said in the White House.
“Not in dribs and drabs, not two and one and three and four and two — Saturday at 12 o’clock and after that, I would say all hell is going to break out.”
The danger of a collapse looks great enough for United Nations secretary general Antonio Guterres to weigh in.
“We must avoid at all costs resumption of hostilities in Gaza that would lead to immense tragedy,” he said in a social media post on Tuesday.
“I appeal to Hamas to proceed with the planned liberation of hostages. Both sides must fully abide by their commitments in the ceasefire agreement and resume serious negotiations.”(Copyright)
