Traditional panamax boxships could “easily” rise by a further 50% in the next two or three years, according to VesselsValue chief operating officer Adrian Economakis.
Such an increase would outpace the surge in prices for larger post-panamax boxships, which have risen in value faster than any sector of shipping.
A five-year old post-panamax of around 7,000 teu has risen by 33% in the past 12 months, but traditional panamax boxships of 4,250 teu are deemed the hottest ticket going forward.
Prices for classic panamax boxships had risen by around 20% this year and still had “a long way to go”, Economakis told Tuesday's Capital Link Shipping & Marine Services Forum in London.
“We can easily see another 50% rise in values over the next two to three years. So, as an asset play, I would go panamax. For safe play, I would go larger vessels.”
Synergy Marine director Andreas Papathomas — whose fleet includes four ten-year-old panamax boxships — agreed there were opportunities in the mid-sized boxship sector due to attractive pricing.
Secondhand vessels can be purchased “at far closer to scrap than the replacement values of the ship themselves”, he said.
But Cao Deambrosio, managing partner of Seamax Capital Management, which controls a dozen vessels from 8500 teu to 9400 teu, argued there were still significant opportunities in the post-panamax sector.
“In the last 12 months, we’ve [seen a] 70% increase in charter rates, and vessels values have been going higher,” said
“We’re very positive for at least the next 24 months,” he said.
“We see orderbook at historical lows. And the supply-demand [balance] should be strong, with the scrubber retrofits that is absorbing around 1% of the container fleet.”
Improving fundamentals for larger and mid-sized containerships has not yet filtered through to the smaller boxship market.
However, Euroseas chief administrative office director Simos Pariaros said that the drying up of the idle fleet for smaller ships would mean higher rates and asset prices going forward.
“We have the appetite to invest in good feederships in the market,” he said.
