Shipowners looking for a Black Friday bargain have options across the bulker, tanker and container sectors, according to researchers at VesselsValue.
Its experts ran the numbers to find the ships, within the five-year-old band, which can be bought at the greatest discount to their average historical price tags.
In the tanker space, which is enjoying a strong winter rally, aframaxes stood out.
The $33.11m price today, is $6.41m below the historic median value, according to VesselsValue.
“A renewed sense of optimism has hit the market as spot market volatility returned in the winter months,” said analyst Court Smith.
“Rising replacement costs for ships is also putting upwards pressure on asset prices as shipyards have been unwilling to continue offering loss leading prices in order to secure business.
“Crude tankers have seen asset price appreciation over the past year as buyers have appeared to sense the opportunity coming as older units were being sent in for recycling at the start of 2018.
In dry cargo handysize vessels showed up as the greatest statistical bargain right now. A five-year old is worth $14.44m by VesselsValue’s estimate, $1.93m below the historical median.
“In late November 2018 handysize ships were earning more than the larger capesize vessels,” Smith said. “This creates an interesting opportunity for investors in the dry bulk space.
"Five-year-old Handysized ships are trading at about 11% below their long-term median value, which suggests more upside is possible from a Handysize asset play than for capesize ships.”
The biggest Black Friday bargain of all, however, could be in the container market, according to the data snapshot.
At $19.31m the panamax containership is a full $17.57m below its historical median average.
However, as Smith points out, the container market is far less clear than the dry bulk and tanker markets.
“The surge in development of larger ships and the rapid changes in the total capacity is creating a structural shift in the trading patterns of the ships,” he explained.
“The consolidation of commercial control among a handful of operators and alliances has reduced the incentive for assets to change hands, limiting the visibility of willing buyer and willing seller transactions. Looking to the smaller end of spectrum is a bit clearer though.
“Small vessels saw an asset value appreciation from mid-2017 through the summer of 2018. Smaller ships are still required to service global ports outside the main hubs.”
Perhaps more than most Black Friday bargain hunters, however, shipowners should think twice before jumping into a purchase as a vessel is an expensive gift to repackage for Christmas if you have buyers’ remorse.
