Clarksons Research believes the impact from the escalating situation in Ukraine will be complex, but forecasts overall tanker demand will rise above pre-pandemic levels next year.
The Russian invasion has the potential to shift oil trade flows if sanctions are placed on Russian energy exports, the research arm of UK shipbroking group Clarkson said.
But putting this aside, “improvements in the tanker market are generally expected to materialise in the second half of 2022 as global oil supply and demand continue to gradually recover,” the company added.
Tonnage requirements in deadweight terms are projected to jump 7% year-on-year in 2022, though will remain 1.5% below the 2019 level.
A recovery is being held back by total oil trade remaining 3% less than in 2019.
“Growth in tanker demand this year is expected to be driven by recovering trade flows as global oil supply and demand continue to rise and economies further recover from the impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic,” Clarksons Research said.
But next year, demand will rise another 4%, the company argues, to stand 2% above the 2019 pre-Covid level.
“Continued growth in US crude exports is expected to provide support, alongside expanding Asian oil demand,” the research company said.
The products trade is expected to benefit from increasing refining capacity in regions such as the Middle East, especially as recent capacity closures in Australasia and Europe open up additional trade opportunities, Clarksons Research added.
“However, growth in crude trade is expected to be held back to some extent by these shifts in refinery capacity,” it said.
Off to a weak start
The tanker market has seen a very weak start to 2022, with average weighted tanker earnings in January standing at $9,255 per day, down 19% from December, the company said.
Average VLCC spot earnings fell to the lowest level on record in early February.
“The tanker markets have suffered from continued pressure on global oil trade amid lingering impacts from the Covid-19 pandemic, recently compounded by short-term disruptions to oil supply,” the company said.
And the short-term outlook remains generally weak against a backdrop of ongoing oil supply issues, including faltering Libyan output and Opec+ missing production targets.
“With the orderbook equivalent to just 7% of fleet capacity, underlying tanker fleet growth is expected to remain limited in the near-term, at 2% in 2022 and less than 0.5% in 2023,” the company concluded.
TradeWinds reporters across the globe are covering the shipping implications on the Russia-Ukraine crisis.
