A huge and growing amount of Russian and Iranian oil is stuck on tankers worldwide as Western sanctions continue to impede cargo delivery, experts believe.
Oil prices and freight rates are up amid a lack of suitable vessels, while fewer Chinese and Indian refiners are willing to receive barrels on blacklisted ships.
Shipbroker Braemar has calculated that 57% of the 126 VLCCs trading Iranian crude to China are now subject to US sanctions.
The amount of Iranian oil in floating storage has grown by between 10m and 20m barrels in 2025, according to three analysts’ estimates cited by Reuters.
Data from analytics company Kpler puts the total at more than 25m barrels, the highest level for at least 12 months.
This is the equivalent of at least 25 suezmaxes. About 80% of these cargoes are off Singapore and Malaysia.
Consultancy Vortexa estimates a much higher figure of 73.1m barrels.
Iran’s exports were higher for a second month at 1.78m barrels in January, after hitting a two-year low of 1.45m barrels in November, the company said.
With fewer ships available, crude prices have risen.
The flagship Iranian Light discount to ICE Brent shrank to $0.50 per barrel in Shandong, China, from $2.50 two months ago.
Russian Espo oil is trading as much as $3 above the ICE Brent mark, the highest level for more than two years.
Freight rates from Russian Pacific ports to China are $4.5m, three times what they were before the January US sanctions, but a lot lower than the peak of $7m in January.
Kpler has said several tankers that had previously moved Iranian oil have switched to carrying Russian barrels.(Copyright)
