TradeWinds WebTV caught up with the US investmentbank’s director of equity research at Marine Money’s Ship Finance Forum to talkabout everything from ship acquisitions and the fall of Overseas ShipholdingGroup to the future of the capital markets and IPOs.
“If you have a ten-year view it’s anexcellent time to by ships,” he said in the hall of the Plaza Hotel.“There will still be tough times, the markets aren’t going to turn quickly butif you have the capital, and not many do, you can shoot now and ask questionslater.”
When asked for a take on the fate of OSG on the back of Wednesday’s bankruptcy filing the researcher saidit will likely continue to trade the ships it ownsoutright for as long as possible based on a bet that rates tied to its core marketsare due to improve.
“It would be very hard to sell the USflag [assets],” Dur continued. “There aren’t that many qualified buyers and [thosethat are] know OSG is under stress. That market is good so everyone wouldtry and get a deal. Those are maybe the best assets they have right now.
“In two years time we may be able tolook back at OSG and say ‘that might have been the bottom of the market’ justlike we can look back at Teekay and Torm buying OMI in 2007 and say ‘thatpretty much marked very close to the top of the market’.”
Dur fears the Manhattan-based operatorof 114 vessels will face a lengthy and “messy” restructuring process that willbe particularly complex given the need to re-examine years of financialstatements and expects to see the cancellation and renegotiation of charters.
While the analyst proceeded withcaution when asked about the future of his own firm, which has been expandingat an impressive pace in an arena where many rivals are running for cover, he saidthe Clarkson offshoot’s growth spurt comes at just the right time.
“In my personal view building a businesswhen times are tough and being able to be there and take market share whenthings get better is the smart way to do it,” he explained when pressed further.
“We will see new entrants in the capitalmarkets business and we will see more equity analysts cover the tickers againwhen the stocks are up but that’s not when you want to start- this is the timeto build a business, when times are tough.”
