Shipping stands as an investible industry for the first time in almost a decade, according to veteran Norwegian broker and investment banker Peter Anker.
However, the industry is set to see huge change in the next 10 years that will place demands on traditional shipowners to adjust, Grieg Star chairperson Elisabeth Grieg told the TradeWinds Shipowners’ Forum at Nor-Shipping today.
Anker, now a senior advisor for broking and banking at Clarksons Platou, said emissions rules arriving in 2020 were about to tip the dial in the favour of shipowners.
He told the forum that the 1990s had seen shipping deliver a zero return on equity, while the last boom had delivered a 35% return between 2000 and 2010.
The period since has seen low single-digit returns, which Anker said was really miserable but had brought down the newbuilding orderbook.
“I think with IMO 2020, shipping is finally investible again," he said.
Anker added that the new rules would lead to basically zero supply growth in the coming years.
“So, assuming growth in demand, I think it looks promising now for the first time in about eight or nine years,” Anker said.
Grieg insisted the industry faced greater challenges than simply freight rates, given the growing regulatory demands and changes in the wider world.
“I think the next 10 years is going to be a tipping point for the planet and for the shipping industry,” she said.
She added that this would require shipowners to adopt a different way of thinking and a change of identity.
“I think the shipowner of the past will not look the same in the future,” she said.
“We will have to think differently and create new solutions, new innovations, new collaborations.
"I think we will, in 10 years’ time, look back and we will almost certainly not have predicted what will happen.”
Taking a pause, Grieg added: “For the next two years though, I’m, sort of, a little bit positive.”
Jan Dieleman, president of Cargill Ocean Transportation, agreed that shipping was set for a major shift.
“I think in the next 10 years we will see more change in the industry than we have seen in the last 100 years,” he said.
“Just looking back and if you can predict the past you can predict the future, those days are gone.
“The whole relationship between the owner and the charterer is going to change.
“I think going forward, you will see collaboration and trying to optimise the asset, which is something you do not see [today].”
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