Aframax and suezmax demand is likely to pivot more towards Turkey as Kazakhstan changes its crude export routing away from Russia.
Shipbroker BRS Group said barrels from the Kashagan field are moving through the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline for the first time.
Last March, domestic producer KazMunayGas and Azerbaijan’s oil company Socar signed an agreement to increase Kazakh crude exports via BTC from 1.5m tonnes to 2.4m tonnes per year.
Previous barrels destined for BTC have come exclusively from the Tengiz field, Kazakhstan’s largest.
The pipeline relies on a small fleet of Kazakh tankers to move oil across the Caspian Sea to Baku in Azerbaijan, where it is shipped into the pipeline.
Kazakhstan is trying to diversify its export pathways to reduce reliance on its larger neighbour, Russia, BRS explained.
In 2022, more than 80% of Kazakhstan’s crude exports left the country via the CPC pipeline, which ends in the Russian Black Sea port of Novorossiysk.
After blending with Russian crude, this is sold as CPC grade.
“This shift should see more demand for aframaxes and suezmaxes to lift from Ceyhan and less from Novorossiysk,” BRS said.
The BP-backed pipeline stretches over 1,768 km and is the second-longest in the former Soviet Union, after the Druzhba line.
In January, Chevron announced the start of oil production at a new Tengiz project, which is expected to boost tanker loadings in the Black Sea.
The US energy giant said the joint venture that runs the Future Growth Project had achieved its first oil.
The project will increase crude production by 260,000 barrels per day if operated at full capacity.
That equates to about 158 aframax or 105 suezmax tanker loadings per year, according to an AI-assisted calculation by TradeWinds.
The project is operated by Tengizchevroil, a joint venture in which Chevron holds a 50% stake.
KazMunayGas controls 20%, US energy giant ExxonMobil 25% and Russia’s Lukoil 5%.(Copyright)
