A more hawkish approach by the new Trump administration towards Iran could cause Tehran to lash out against regional shipping, according to an economist.
Iran could target maritime and oil facilities in the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia if its oil exports were significantly disrupted by tighter sanctions, according to Lloyd Barton, head of thematic macro consulting at Oxford Economics.
Speaking at Marine Money in London, he cited previous attacks by the pariah regime in 2019, including an incident that saw two tankers operated by Frontline and Bernhard Schulte subjected to a “torpedo” attack off Fujairah in the UAE.
The attack was attributed to Iran, although this was denied by Tehran.
The British-flagged tanker Stena Impero was seized that year by Iran, which cited a violation of maritime rules.
The US under the first Trump administration had withdrawn from the Iran nuclear deal in 2018.
“There’s a supply of oil at the moment going into 2025, 2026,” the economist said.
“So in theory, there wouldn’t be an issue to replace the 1.5m barrels a day or so that Iran has supplied to the market.
Barton explained: “The bigger issue here is what would Iran do about [constraints] because that is its major revenue source. That’s probably the major concern.”
He said Iran, both directly and through its allies, can cut off oil supplies via the Strait of Hormuz.
“So having a very hawkish, maximum pressure policy on Iran is something that Trump will need to come to terms with carefully.”
