Iranian tanker loadings plunged nearly 70% in the first 10 days of October over fears of Israeli retaliation for Iran’s missile attack.
State-owned National Iranian Tanker Co (NITC) moved vessels away from its key export terminal on Kharg Island in the period.
Data obtained by Iran International suggests the country loaded only 600,000 barrels per day in the first 10 days of the month, down from an average of 1.5m bpd in recent months.
Tracking data shows an increase in the number of tankers at the Kharg terminal since 10 October.
Loadings have resumed, but are slower than usual. Export volumes are now estimated at 800,000 bpd.
Analytics company Vortexa said in a report that only two VLCCs were loaded there between 1 October and 10 October.
The average was slightly more than one VLCC per day in the first nine months of 2024.
Satellite imagery provided to Middle East Eye by TankerTrackers showed two VLCCs controlled by NITC loading crude last week.
An aframax tanker, owned by a third party, was also at the terminal.
Vortexa has noted that NITC vessels used as floating storage have been leaving the country.
Iran launched missiles at Israel on 1 October in retaliation for attacks in Lebanon and Yemen.
Hormuz closure remains unlikely
There were then reports that Israel could target energy infrastructure in Iran.
Vortexa believes Iran is unlikely to close the key Strait of Hormuz to tankers and other vessels, as it has periodically threatened to do.
This is because more than 95% of its oil exports go to China.
“Such a move would trigger severe economic instability and jeopardise Iran’s vital relationship with China,” Vortexa said.
