The Energy Information Administration is trying to figure out how LNG exports will impact US domestic gas prices.

Meeting in San Antonio for the CWC America’s Summit, project developers expressed concern the government agency’s calculation that Henry Hub prices could jump as much as 54% has fuelled confusion in the market.

After all, the headline-grabbing figure was the EIA’s most extreme case, based on Henry Hub prices rather than nationwide averages and unrealistically assuming the US will export more LNG than Qatar.

Deloitte consultant Tom Choi painted a less dramatic picture in which Henry Hub rises 22 cents per million British thermal units but average prices add only 12 cents.

The difference between the two views, LNG players argue, is the behaviour of gas...