The industry is dealing with the situation better than expected. It seems that resilience has built up during the long cycle bottoms. Upcoming IMO requirements have caused tremendous pressure. However, the expected tumult caused by IMO 2020 has faded as the Covid-19 crisis has put a blanket over everything.
The summer was filled with hectic responses: crew were stuck on board, office staff were working from home and many employees were stuck outside their countries.
After a year like no other, TradeWinds asked 40 shipping industry stakeholders what they see for 2021 after a year beset by the coronavirus, and how the pandemic will shape shipping's future.
I recall a week in April as being my horror week. I was inundated with calls from both CEOs and their employees.
Whilst company owners often wanted to know how they could use the situation to restructure, many employees were made redundant with no warning whatsoever. I cannot help but point my finger at a number of companies that used the situation to lay off expats. I feel strongly for employees who lost their livelihood amidst closed borders. They were not able to move or find new positions.
That should and could have been handled better.
Looking at the forecast, we do see positive numbers for bulk and containers. However, the offshore market is still suffering. I do not blame this on Covid-19 but on oil prices and the ongoing political tension in the Middle East Gulf region. We have to see whether the new US government will release this tension or if it will get worse.
Covid-19 has come at a time when many companies are looking at renewing tonnage and I do expect the newbuilding market to increase. Classification societies are armed to provide new technologies, and I think the changes to technology and energy savings will be rapid and massive.
On the legal side, due to Covid-19, all maritime law firms have seen an increase in litigation and arbitration, mainly caused by charter parties with no force-majeure clauses — and I predict that this tendency will continue. We had to invite a number of lawyers to join our team, and we do forecast that restructuring, insolvencies and mergers will keep the legal industry extremely busy in 2021.
Shipping is a people business and many projects start by chance interactions, which are missing at the moment.
Events such as Posidonia are usually an important part of networking. We are now missing these interactions, and what impact this will have on projects remains to be seen. I have moved many of my meetings to the golf course, as it is currently the best place for a direct meeting with enough social distancing!
