A ceasefire between Israel and Hamas may not spell the end of Houthi attacks on shipping, security experts say.
The Yemeni militant group, which has menaced the waters of the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden since November 2023, may only temporarily halt their attacks.
Nadwa Al-Dawsari, a non-resident scholar who focuses on Yemen and the region for the Middle East Institute think tank, said the Houthis might also claim that their campaign helped end the conflict in Gaza.
“It might lead to a suspension of attacks in the Red Sea, but it’s not going to be permanent,” she told TradeWinds.
Al-Dawsari said that when the Houthis launched their assaults on shipping and naval forces in the region, the war in Gaza was the justification. But she said that was propaganda and not the group’s actual objective.
“They still want to hold the Red Sea hostage,” she added. “But it will not be too long before they find another reason to attack ships, or Israel for that matter.”
Ian Ralby, chief executive of maritime and security consultancy IR Consilium, said it was “false and hypocritical” for the militant group to claim that its support for Palestinians in Gaza was the reason for its attacks on shipping.
“The only impact that the ceasefire will have on the Houthis is forcing them to pivot to another false narrative,” he said.
Middle East security experts have said that the Houthis, despite their current support from Iran, want to create their own caliphate, and they see the US and Israel as long-term enemies.
The Houthis have not attacked a merchant ship in 2025 to date.
But in the days leading up to the announcement of the ceasefire deal, they fired ballistic missiles at Israel, which responded with attacks on ports and power plants in areas of Yemen controlled by the rebel group.
The Houthis also claimed to have carried out a second attack in a week on the aircraft carrier USS Harry S Truman, though the US military has not confirmed the claim.
Mohammed Abdul Salam, the official spokesman for the Houthis’ Ansar Allah organisation, acknowledged the ceasefire on Wednesday as the conclusion of the “battle”, but continued to describe Israel as a threat to the region.
Shipping companies that have avoided the Red Sea may not rush back at first.
Lars Jensen, chief executive of container shipping consultancy Vespucci Maritime, said a reopening of the Suez Canal route to liner operators is not imminent.
“In order to revert to a Suez routing the carriers would want to be reasonably certain that the situation does not suddenly deteriorate, and they would have to make their vessels do a U-turn and once more revert back to Africa,” he said on LinkedIn.
“Such yo-yo movements of the services are extremely disruptive.”
He also said Houthi communications imply that a Gaza ceasefire might not be enough for them to back off.
Ralby, who is also a non-resident senior fellow at the think tank Center for Maritime Strategy, said shipping should pay attention to what the Houthis do, and not what they say, after the ceasefire.
“The shipping industry should make no changes until they see … a sustained period of real change in behaviour by the Houthis,” he told TradeWinds.(Copyright)
